November - Latest whitepaper update: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets?

16 November 2020

16 November 2020

The latest edition of Autovista Group’s whitepaper: How will COVID-19 shape used-car markets? considers the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections across Europe. Out of the 18 markets covered, 10 have adopted a more negative view of overall economic scenario outcomes.

The latest update to the Autovista Group whitepaper covers such topics as:

  • Three-speed RVs: Europe’s used-car prices recover to pre-crisis levels
  • A golden age for used-car markets?
  • The double-edged sword of EV government incentives?
  • Coronavirus scenarios – how swiftly will economies recover?

Residual-value (RV) outlooks have changed. 10 of the countries tracked have now changed to a more favourable position for RVs in 2020 as the landscape for the year becomes clearer. Eight countries have also confirmed their RV outlooks for 2021 and 2022.

However, RVs are also under threat from government-backed incentive schemes, designed to help the automotive industry following extensive lockdowns earlier this year. Such grants favour the purchase of new vehicles, and Autovista Group has analysed the impact on the used-car market in different regions, focusing on internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric-vehicle (EV) models. The latter looks to be under more pressure, especially in two markets.

The whitepaper shows that a ‘two-speed’ market recovery continues in Europe. This year has seen most used-car markets fare particularly well, even above pre-COVID levels. However, this is largely driven by a run for cheaper, older vehicles, as many come to rely less on public transport through fear of contracting COVID-19. Young used cars, including those coming off-lease or released by rental firms, do not see such a level of recovery and are under pressure in a number of markets.

Yet some markets, such as in Southern Europe, will not be at pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022. There are already signs of the need for some downward market correction before the end of this year.

You can find more information about how different markets are shaping up, and the various economic scenarios across the region, in the latest update of the Autovista Group whitepaper - ‘How will COVID-19 shape used car markets’ – which can be viewed here.